Decision Analysis: Supporting Environmental Decision Makers Workshop

March 31, 2009 - Open to the public

Decision Analysis Supporting Federal, State, and Local Decision Makers

Purpose: During the Decision Analysis: Supporting Environmental Decision Makers Workshop, the field of decision analysis will be introduced and concrete examples demonstrating how decision analysis is being used to structure decisions will be presented.

Background: Research by itself is an inefficient avenue for affecting environmental decisions. If the Office of Research and Development's (ORD) research is not positively affecting decisions (either through governmental policies, regulations, or local/state/regional development decisions), it cannot affect human health and the environment. By identifying and analyzing the research activities uniquely suited to ORD's capabilities and then communicating this research within an appropriate decision analysis framework, the probability of that research influencing environmental decisions is significantly increased. Ecosystems are complex, dynamic open systems whose intrinsic and extrinsic value is often not considered when making decisions that indirectly and/or directly impact a particular ecosystem. Reflecting the complexity surrounding environmental decisions, the economic and population growth patterns of the 20th century resulted in significant degradation of many ecosystems and their associated services. As ecosystems disappeared or neared collapse, federal, state, and local leaders began looking for methods to evaluate a decision's future environmental impact. ORD is uniquely positioned to provide decision makers with the information necessary to make adaptive management decisions taking into consideration environmental, economic, and social interrelations. Reliably providing such information will require ORD to confidently predict and communicate alternatives with minimal (or acceptable) uncertainty.

Goal: By the end of the day, workshop participants will understand how decision analysis methods could be used to inform environmental decisions, such as land development decisions, and ORD's role in supporting these decision tools. Participants also will understand how decision analysis methods could be used to support ORD's decisions, such as identifying which investment option has greatest potential for yielding valuable information to inform environmental decisions.

April 1, 2009 - Day 2 is Limited to ORD Senior Management and the Board of Scientific Counselors

Decision Analysis Supporting Office of Research and Development Decision Makers

Purpose: During the second day of the Decision Analysis: Supporting Environmental Decision Makers Workshop, the necessary structure and components used in decision analysis will be indentified and case studies demonstrating how a decision support tool could be applied to internal ORD decisions will be presented and assessed.

Background: In the face of shrinking buying power and increasing pressure to maximize research efficiency, ORD strives to leverage its research portfolio to maximize the affect on Agency decisions and ultimately on protection of human health and the environment. One of the most pressing tasks facing ORD is deciding how to evaluate strategic research options in a complex and uncertain decision-making environment. A primary objective in strategic planning is identifying new areas of opportunity and establishing research priorities to best meet current and future objectives under existing and expected constraints¹. The complexity and uncertainty surrounding such a prioritization makes it easy for decision makers to deliver a laundry list of all possible needs and problems without defining which options are the most important, making effective communication of corporate priorities difficult if not impossible. In addition, a perception that priorities are established in an opaque and subjective manner is pervasive throughout the organization. Although objective criteria may be, and typically are, used, there is no formalized record of the decision analysis process and no established prioritization framework. This is especially true with strategic decisions-those infrequent decisions made by the top leaders of an organization that critically affect organizational health and survival² — that are typically considered too unstructured and unbounded to be amenable to standard decision analysis techniques.

Goal: Workshop participants will concretely contribute to the case study specifics. General decision context, supporting information, and a budget will be provided. Each participant will be expected to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of various decision analysis methods and provide advice as to which method is most appropriate to the decision contexts presented.

Registration Contact Information

Denise Hoffman, CMP
The Scientific Consulting Group, Inc.
656 Quince Orchard Road, Suite 210
Gaithersburg, MD 20878
Telephone Number: 301-670-4990
dhoffman@scgcorp.com

¹M. Brydon. Evaluating Strategic Options Using Decision-Theoretic Planning. Information Technology and Management. 2006;7:35-49.
²K.M. Eisenhardt & M.J. Zbaracki. Strategic Decision Making. Strategic Management Journal. 1992;13:17-37.